Add Politcal Insider as the latest site to recognize that if we look at the big picture, as opposed to national polls, Bill Richardson is becoming the number three candidate in the race. I certainly wouldn’t write off John Edwards any more than I wrote off John Kerry when he trailed Al Sharpton in the national polls in 2003, but at the moment Edwards’s prospects are looking quite poor. Political Insider writes:
Gov. Bill Richardson is on the move in the leadoff primary and caucus states, and if the trend continues, he will soon supplant John Edwards as the number three candidate in the Democratic race. While the RCP Average has Richardson at just 3.7% nationally, and Edwards at 11.4%, Richardson is rising in Iowa (11.0%), New Hampshire (9.3%), and Nevada (6.0%). In New Hampshire he is just three points behind Edwards, and actually pulled ahead of him in a July CNN poll.
Richardson is gaining because of basic retail politics. The man who holds the Guinness Book world record for political hand-shaking — 13,392 during an eight-hour stretch at the 2002 New Mexico State Fair — is perhaps the most accessible Democratic politician since Bill Clinton. A June New Republic piece on Richardson opened with a portrait of Richardson messily munching a hot dog in the stands at an Iowa minor league baseball game, chatting about North Korea and peppering his speech with f-bombs. The magazine said, “This is the essence of Richardson’s appeal — that he can blend seamlessly into a crowd of AAA baseball fans (unlike, say, John Kerry) while chatting about his negotiations with a member of the axis of evil (unlike, say, George W. Bush). … He is both the hot-dog-and-ballgame everyman and the seasoned international statesman.”
Richardson benefits from his earthiness and likability, as well as from some famously clever campaign ads. He works great on the retail level. His problems lie elsewhere.
They go on to discuss Richardson’s performance in the debates and the Meet the Press interview, but also note other candidates have overcome such early problems. He appears much better during his stump speeches than on nationally televised debates, and this might matter more in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Richardson has the advantages that, in addition to moving up in the polls in the early states, he polls strongly among independents who plan to vote in Democratic caucuses and primaries where this is allowed. At the moment it is a tight race between Obama and Richardson for such independents. Obama’s charisma gives him an advantage, but Richardson’s considerably greater experience might lead people to ultimately decide he’d make the better, even if less exciting, president.
Richardson remains a long shot. Edwards will be the easiest to move ahead of in the polls. Edwards primarily benefits from name recognition as Joe Lieberman did in the early polls in 2003 only to see his campaign collapse. Edwards differs from Lieberman in changing his position on the war, which may allow him to remain a credible candidate a while longer. However Edwards has the liabilities of a poorly run campaign and a move towards populism which alienates the the new Democratic voters who gave Democrats their victory in 2006.
As I already noted, Richardson will have to convince voters to value experience over charisma to move ahead of Obama, who also appeals to independents and professionals. Hillary Clinton remains the front runner, but an increasing number of Democrats are worrying about her negatives and just might consider an alternative.
