The results on the Iowa straw poll are in:
- Romney 31.5%
- Huckabee 18.1%
- Brownback 15%
- Tancredo 13.7%
- Ron Paul 9%
I think that Mike Huckabee is the only one who can really be happy tonight. Perhaps his campaign will attract more attention with this second place showing, especially as many Republicans are dissatisfied by the top tier candidates. Considering all the money Romney spent and the absence of the other top candidates, 31.5% is not much of an endorsement for him.
Maybe this will put an end to the delusions that Ron Paul has a chance at winning the nomination. Paul supporters have argued that all the internet buzz regarding Paul and greater intensity of support would lead Paul to do far better than indicated by the polls. While they are right that he could perform somewhat better than his position in the polls, this event shows that their efforts are not enough to win in the Republican Party.
I doubt that Ron Paul himself is that surprised or disappointed, although his campaign did predict a finish in the top three. I assume he got into this to spread a message as opposed to having any expectations of victory. There is no reason for his supporters to give up. If they agree with Paul there is still reason to spread his message, but they should do so with the understanding that this really is about spreading a message and not winning an election.
5th wasn’t bad. way ahead of where most had him—last.. or second to last. i hope your not right, but if he looses i’d at least like him to go 3rd party (which he opened the door to.. just a crack last week in an interview). that should at least keep the war-mongering crew out of the white house.
If you’re in terms of a message candidacy, then getting 9% as opposed to zilch is an improvement. If you are thinking in terms of actually winning, then 5th doesn’t cut it.
I’ve been wondering if Paul would run as a third party candidate but didn’t see the interview where he opened the door to this possibility. Do you have a link?
Ron Paul’s campaign is just starting. We are in it to win it. A jump from 1-2% in the polls to taking 9% is pretty good especially since he was campaigning in Iowa for such a short time compared to the others. Momentum just needs to keep building.
this is awsome news.
Ron Paul beat
Fred Thompson,
Rudy Giuliani,
John McCain,
Duncan Hunter
He did nearly five times better than the telephone polls suggested. From now on we will have to multiply his poll results by four or five to get his real level of support.
Later
Kevin,
A few problems. Thompson isn’t officially in the race and didn’t compete. Giuliani and McCain didn’t compete. Beating Duncan Hunter doesn’t mean much (and it may be time for him and some others to give it up).
Besides Romney, who was expected to, weaker candidates such as Huckabee, Brownback, and even Tancredo beat Paul.
The biggest problem is that when it comes to the ultimate nomination battle, only coming in first will matter. I had no doubt that Paul could beat his numbers in the polls, but that hardly places him in a position to win the nomination.