The response to newspaper articles today demonstrates the anti-scientific mind set of the right wing, showing who is looking at climate change objectively, and who is choosing their “facts” based upon ideology. Several papers, including USA Today and Reuters, report on a study published in Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences which shows a correlation between global warming and increased incidence of hurricanes. Following is from the abstract:
We find that long-period variations tropical cyclone and hurricane frequency over the past century in the North Atlantic Ocean have occurred in the form of three, relatively stable regimes separated by sharp transitions. Each regime has seen 50% more cyclones and hurricanes than the previous regime and is associated with a distinct range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, there appears to have been a substantial 100-year trend leading to related increases of over 0.7 C in SST and over 100% in tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers. It is concluded that the overall trend in SSTs and tropical cyclone and hurricane numbers is substantially influenced by greenhouse warming. Superimposed on the evolving tropical cyclone and hurricane climatology is a completely independent oscillation manifested in the proportions tropical cyclones that become major and minor hurricanes. This characteristic has no distinguishable net trend and appears to be associated with concomitant variations in the proportion of equatorial and higher-latitude hurricane developments, perhaps arising from internal oscillations of the climate system. The period of enhanced major hurricane activity during 1945-1964 is consistent with a peak period in major hurricane proportions.
I’ve made note several times cases in the past where a newspaper carried a weak criticism of global warming, but the right wing blogosphere adopted it as the new gosple on the subject (including here and here). This article on hurricanes presents the reverse situation. As is often the case in science, there is controversy over this paper. Scientific issues are typically resolved in peer reviewed journals, as opposed to newspapers or blogs, and a more definitive theory can be developed after the issues are resolved. In the case of global warming, this culminated in a strong consensus among scientists regarding the influence of human action on climate change.
Search engines and Memeorandum reveal considerable buzz about this article in the conservative blogosphere. They generally grab onto the controversy and, despite the lack of any expertise in the field or even reviewing the actual journal article, are unanimous in declaring that the findings are bogus. A typical conservative response can be seen at Blue Crab Boulevard.
The liberal response is more objective. Chris Mooney, author of The Republican War on Science, summarizes the debate and concludes:
Let me be completely frank: I have no idea who’s right in the current argument between Holland/Webster and Landsea. Indeed, in some sense it’s probably unknowable–we’re talking about missed storms, after all, and now that they’ve been missed of course we don’t know how many of them there were.
From a policy perspective, though, we don’t have to remain completely agnostic regarding this debate. There are several important points to take away from this latest dustup, and in a follow-up post, I will tease out those implications. But for now, if I’ve left everyone scratching their heads about who to trust in the current argument, all I can say is, I’m scratching my head too….
While anti-science conservatives were ready to find reason to argue with the findings immediately upon seeing the headline, liberals who respect science take a completely different approach. Whether or not this particular study is valid has no bearing on the overall scientific consensus on global warming. Of course, while unlikely, it would be even better if we were to find out that global warming is not really a problem and actual evidence of this would be welcome. Unfortunately, unlike the right wing, we cannot ignore scientific evidence just because we do not like the results.