While I have some skepticism about the meaning of a measure of Bill Richardson surging I mentioned earlier, this one may be the real deal. In the latest poll of likely caucus goers published by the Des Moines Register, Richardson has moved into double digits at 10%. Edwards leads at 29% and Obama has edged ahead of Clinton (23% to 21%).
Considering how long it is until the caucuses, and considering the volatility seen in previous years, I think that any of these four currently stand a good chance to win. It is a major development that Richardson, while still not well known nationally, has moved well ahead of candidates such as Biden and Dodd and now has a meaningful base of support to build on. This is too early to say if Obama’s lead over Clinton means anything, but this will also be a trend worth watching.
