Clinton and Obama Tied in Rasmussen Poll

There was a time when it appeared that Hillary Clinton would coast to an easy victory, with nobody able to compete. In recent weeks Barack Obama made the race look competitive, and Edwards could not be counted out due to his strength in Iowa. There was also a time when John McCain was the front runner for the Republican nomination, but nobody is saying that anymore. Today might mark the end of Hillary’s run as front runner.

I hate to pay much attention to polls this far out. We saw in 2004, when John Kerry trailed Al Sharpton in some national polls, that national polls meant nothing. We also saw in the final days before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary that only polls just before people went to vote, when they actually made up their minds, meant a thing. With those warnings about paying too much attention to polls, it is notable that for the first time a poll shows Obama tied with Clinton. Rasmussen shows both Clinton and Obama at 32%, with John Edwards remaining third at 17%. For Bill Richardson, the good news is that he still leads the second tier, but the bad news is that his support is only at 3%.

Again, these polls have little predictive value, but besides the momentum Obama is showing, the polls show that Obama has greater core. While it might not help in the primaries, unless it influences the votes of Democrats, Obama has better favorable versus unfavorable ratings among all voters:

Among all voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 49%. Obama’s numbers are a bit stronger—59% favorable and 34% unfavorable. The two candidates are essentially even among Democrats—Clinton is viewed favorably by 74% in her party while Obama is viewed favorably by 72%. Among unaffiliated voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 50%, Obama by 67%.

If other polls agree this will end the idea that Clinton is the front runner and that victory for her is inevitable, increasing the chances that Obama, and possibly other candidates, can further increase their support.

Be Sociable, Share!

Leave a comment