What to Watch For on Election Day

Now that I’m done kicking around Dick DeVos for the day, it is time to look towards tomorrow. The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will easily pick up enough seats to take the House, while the Senate remains a toss up. Democrats are also expected to pick up around 6-8 Governor’s offices.

With virtually every pundit saying the same thing, one prediction I’m making is that somewhere along the way the conventional wisdom will be wrong and part of tomorrow night will be spent hearing pundits explain why their predictions were wrong. Or maybe I’ll have to explain that all the pundits were right and this blogger’s prediction is wrong. Regardless, keep in mind that there are many factors beyond the polls in a mid term election. Which is more important this year–the increased enthusiasm in voting expressed by Democrats or the superior GOTV machine of the Republicans?

The main thing I’ll be watching (beyond the races here in Michigan, which appear pretty safe) is the Senate races in Virginia and Missouri. Both Webb and McCaskill are leading in some late polls, but their victories are far from certain. Most likely the Democrats will need both to control the Senate, with Ford now falling behind. Maybe Ford will pull it out, but if so it will be part of a major Democratic wave and they’ll also have won in Virginia and Missouri. If they lose either, it isn’t impossible but I doubt the Democrats will win the Senate tomorrow night.

That does not mean Democrats will not take control of the Senate by January. Two thirds of the Senate is not up for reelection this year, but if northern Republicans see this election as part of a realignment, and fear that they cannot win in the future as Repubicans, some might be willing to consider switching, or going Independent. A loss by Lincoln Chaffee could get some northern Republicans to reconsider their party affiliation.

Another prediction is that sometime tomorrow exit polls will leak out and get everybody excited. We’ve seen in recent years that 1) raw data from exit polls is not very accurate, and 2) such data leans Democratic. This won’t stop some from declaring victory based upon exit polls, and declaring fraud if the results don’t hold up. With the early reports of dirty tricks coming in, fraud may be a possibility, but it is always best to get the proof. Some blogs I’ve seen have already decided that anything short of a Democratic sweep is proof of a stolen election.

If the early election results aren’t exciting enough, there’s always Gilmore Girls and Veronica Mars on the CW Network.

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2 Comments

  1. 1
    kj says:

    This isn’t funny, it really isn’t, but it is… parts of Missouri are under a Dense Fog Advisory.

    Fog soup, everywhere. It’s supposed to lift by 9 am, but what a metaphor for this state on this day.

  2. 2
    battlebob says:

    Our voting in Alto, Mich was smooth as silk.
    We still use optical scanners where the circle is colored in.
    We are getting a nice turn out as after two ours we were in the low 300s.

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