Ramussen found that the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has fallen to a 32 month low. The number of Republican has fallen from 37.2% in October 2004 to 31.9%. 37.3% identify themselves as Democrats with 30.8% unaffiliated, represented the highest percentage for independents since Rasmussen started releasing such data in January 2004.
With polls showing that independents are heavily supporting Democrats this year, this poll is consistent with predictions for major Democratic victories this fall. This also verifies what I’ve noted several times when conservative blogs have doubted the validity of polls showing heavy support for a Democratic controlled Congress. Conservative bloggers claim that the polls over-sample Democrats, while I’ve argued that this was to be expected as people who tell pollsters that they want Democrats to control Congress are also more likely to identify themselves as Democrats, regardless of previous party affiliation.
The USA Today/Gallup Poll shows Democrats are leading in several Senate races, but will need to win in some where Republicans are now leading to take control.
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