George Bush showed a mild recovery in approval earlier in the summer. His recovery, which was limited as his approval remained under 40% in most polls, has ended. The latest AP-Ipsos Poll shows his approval is back down to 33%, matching his low from last May. The large majority who disapprove of George Bush include many people who voted for him back in 2004 but now plan to vote for Demcrats in this fall’s Congressional elections.
When the polls first started showing approval of under 40%, Bush worshippers would frequently attribute this to bias in the polls. If there is “bias”, then Fox News shares it as their poll shows Bush’s approval at 36%. They found that 48% would vote for a Democrat for Congress while only 30% say they would vote for a Republican. This eighteen point edge for Democrats is up from eight points in mid-July.
Conservative blogs frequently discount recent polls with claims that they over-sample Democrats. While true that most of the recent polls show more people identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans, this is what should really have them scared. For many people who don’t live in the partisan blogosphere, party affiliation is fluid. Those who plan to vote for a Democrat for Congress are more likely to call themselves a Democrat, even if they identified themselves as a Republican when saying they would vote for George Bush in 2004.